Putin visits India amid Ukraine peace push: What’s on the agenda?

By Admin

05 Dec, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi on Thursday evening for a highly watched visit his first trip to India since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. The visit comes at a time when Moscow faces increasing pressure to end the war, and when India is navigating its most delicate diplomatic balancing act between Russia and the West.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi broke protocol to personally receive Putin on the tarmac, greeting him with a warm embrace. The symbolism was striking: at a moment when Washington and New Delhi are experiencing renewed friction, Modi’s gesture reinforced India’s intent to keep its long-standing partnership with Russia steady.

A High-Stakes Visit at a Sensitive Time

Putin’s 30-hour visit coincides with rising tensions between the US and India. Washington has recently imposed tariffs and issued sanctions threats over India’s continued ties with Russia and its surge in purchases of Russian crude during the Ukraine conflict.

Since independence in 1947, India has famously avoided formal alliances, choosing strategic autonomy instead. While it leaned toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War, India has since strengthened relations with the US   even as it continues to maintain deep defence and energy ties with Russia.
The Ukraine war, however, has made this balance significantly harder to maintain.

What’s Scheduled for Putin?

After landing in New Delhi, Putin and Modi drove together to a private dinner at the prime minister’s residence, signalling the personal rapport between the two leaders.

On Friday, December 5, Putin’s schedule includes:

• Guard of honour at Rashtrapati Bhavan
  
  

• Meeting with President Droupadi Murmu
  
  

• A visit to Raj Ghat to pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi
  
  

• Official talks at Hyderabad House as part of the annual India-Russia summit
  
  

• Meetings with top business leaders
  
  

• A second interaction with Murmu before departing New Delhi at 9pm local time
  
  

The Kremlin has described the trip as “of great importance,” emphasising that it will allow both nations to review their “particularly privileged strategic partnership.” Putin is accompanied by senior officials, including Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, Rosoboronexport executives, and reportedly the heads of Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.

Why the Timing Matters

This year marks 25 years of the India-Russia strategic partnership. But the relationship has faced multiple disruptions since the Ukraine war began.

• 2022: Modi was scheduled to visit Moscow, but the annual summit was cancelled after the invasion.
  
  

• 2023: Putin skipped the G20 Summit in New Delhi due to ICC-related concerns.
  
  

• 2024: Modi visited Russia, reviving the annual summit format.
  
  

• 2025: Putin is now in India for the first time in four years.
  
  

The timing is symbolic   signalling an attempt to stabilise relations despite international pressures.

What’s on the Agenda?

Experts expect discussions to focus on:

• Expanding bilateral defence ties
  
  

• Potential purchases of Russian missiles, fighter jets, and S-400 systems
  
  

• Increasing trade in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and agricultural goods
  
  

• Addressing payment hurdles and imbalanced trade flows
  
  

• Exploring new growth areas, including labour migration
  
  

Putin is also expected to use the visit to project that Russia is not isolated globally   especially as he faces pressure at home and abroad.

The Trump Factor: A Shadow Over the Summit

President Donald Trump’s latest push to force Moscow and Kyiv toward a peace agreement has reshaped India’s position in the conflict.
India’s imports of Russian crude skyrocketed by 2,250% after 2022, making it the world’s second-largest buyer. Initially, the US quietly supported these purchases to stabilise global oil prices.

But recently, the Trump administration:

• Imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods, later doubled to 50%
  
  

• Sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s biggest oil firms
  
  

• Warned foreign companies against trading with them
  
  

Reliance, India’s biggest private-sector oil refiner, has since said it will stop exporting products derived from Russian crude.

Indian imports of Russian crude are now expected to fall to a three-year low.

India has simultaneously increased its import of US natural gas, signalling an evolving energy strategy under pressure.

Defence: The Strongest Pillar of India-Russia Ties

Despite turbulence in energy, defence cooperation remains robust.

• Russia accounts for 36% of India’s arms imports
  
  

• Over 60% of India’s current arsenal** is of Russian origin
  
  

• India is considering buying more S-400 missile systems
  
  

• Russia is promoting its Su-57 stealth fighter jets as a potential deal item
  
  

India’s Air Force leadership recently said the S-400 system was a “game changer” during the brief air conflict with Pakistan in May.

Trade Outlook: Growth and Imbalance

India-Russia bilateral trade has surged from $10bn pre-war to nearly $69bn, driven overwhelmingly by discounted Russian crude oil.

But the trade is heavily skewed:

• India’s exports: ~$5bn
  
  

• Russia’s exports: ~$64bn
  
  

• Resulting trade deficit: $59bn
  
  

Experts caution that as oil imports decline, overall trade numbers will also fall, making the target of $100bn by 2030 increasingly difficult.

One emerging area of cooperation is labour migration. Facing a shortage of 3.1 million workers by 2030, Russia is opening its labour market to Indian workers   a shift that could deepen people-to-people ties.

The Diplomatic Tightrope

For India, the challenge remains unchanged: strengthen ties with Russia without damaging strategic relations with the US, Europe, or its own geopolitical vision.

As New Delhi negotiates trade agreements simultaneously with the US, EU, and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, it faces the constant risk of upsetting one side or the other.

According to analysts, the only development that could ease India’s diplomatic juggling act is a genuine breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace process.

Conclusion: A Visit Loaded With Signals

Putin’s visit to India is symbolic, strategic, and sensitive   all at once.

It is a reminder of:

• India’s continued commitment to strategic autonomy
  
  

• Russia’s desire to show it still has powerful friends
  
  

• The complex impact of great-power politics on India’s economic and security interests
  
  

With defence ties stable, energy cooperation shifting, and trade imbalances widening, both countries must navigate a complex geopolitical environment. The world will be watching closely especially Washington  for signs of how India balances its competing partnerships as the Ukraine conflict enters a new phase.