New footage gives rise to three theories for Ajit Pawar jet crash

By Admin

30 Jan, 2026

Fresh video footage capturing the final seconds of the Learjet 45 business jet, registered as VT-SSK, has triggered intense scrutiny among aviation experts and investigators, raising three possible explanations for the tragic crash in Baramati on Wednesday that claimed the lives of Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and four others on board.

While the visuals have offered new clues, experts stress that definitive conclusions will only emerge after a detailed technical investigation particularly the analysis of cockpit voice recordings (CVR) and telemetry data from the aircraft’s black box. The flight data recorder and CVR were recovered from the wreckage on Thursday and are now central to the probe.

What the New Footage Shows

CCTV footage of the aircraft’s final moments appears to show the Learjet’s left wing dropping suddenly just before impact. In the brief clip, the jet seems to snap sharply to one side midair and then crashes in a fireball. This dramatic loss of control has led experts to outline three main theories: an aerodynamic stall, an engine failure, or a sharp last-moment manoeuvre during the aircraft’s second landing attempt.

Investigators have confirmed that the Learjet had already attempted one approach and executed a go-around before beginning the fatal second attempt to land.

Theory One: Aerodynamic Stall During Approach

The most widely discussed explanation is an aerodynamic stall particularly an asymmetric stall. In aircraft like the Learjet 45, which have engines mounted on the tail rather than under the wings, one wing can lose lift before the other during slow-speed manoeuvring. This can result in a sudden roll at low altitude, leaving little or no time for recovery.

The US National Transportation Safety Board has documented similar fatal outcomes in multiple business jet accidents since 2014, including crashes involving a Phenom 100 in Maryland, a Learjet 35A in New Jersey, and a Challenger 605 in California. In each case, aircraft entered uncontrolled rolls after exceeding the critical angle of attack during approach.

An aerodynamic stall occurs when an aircraft’s speed or angle or a combination of both prevents the wings from producing sufficient lift, causing a rapid loss of altitude. Investigators will examine whether the pilots slowed too much while visually manoeuvring to align with the runway threshold.

Federation of Indian Pilots president CS Randhawa said the video appears to support this theory, though he urged caution. He explained that at low speeds, crossing the critical angle of attack increases drag and reduces lift, potentially leading to a wingtip stall. Such an event would likely activate the stick shaker warning, details of which would be evident in the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recordings.

Theory Two: Possible Engine Failure

A second possibility raised by experts is an engine failure during the final approach. According to guidance from the Federal Aviation Administration, loss of power on one engine creates asymmetric thrust, leading to yaw and a roll toward the inoperative engine if not corrected immediately with rudder input.

However, experts note that no mayday call was recorded in the roughly 60 seconds between landing clearance and the crash, making a sudden mechanical failure less likely than a stall though not impossible. Aviation consultant Mark D Martin observed that the Learjet 45 is a very fast aircraft and not designed to perform well at low speeds, especially during landing. In such a scenario, an engine failure close to the ground could quickly overwhelm the crew’s ability to maintain control.

Theory Three: Sharp Manoeuvre in the Final Moments

A third theory points to a sharp banking manoeuvre just before impact. One pilot, speaking anonymously, suggested the crew may have sighted the runway too late and attempted an aggressive turn to align with it. This explanation is closely linked to the nature of the airport itself.

Baramati airport lacks advanced navigation aids, meaning pilots must rely heavily on visual estimation during approach. Safety expert Amit Singh questioned the conditions under which the aircraft was cleared to land, particularly if visibility was compromised. He suggested that sun glare in the final moments may have affected the crew’s perception, leading them to realise too late that the aircraft was not properly aligned with the runway. Singh cited a similar visual-approach misjudgement in the 2017 Clear Jet crash in the United States.

Caution Against Early Conclusions

Some aviation professionals believe multiple factors may have converged. A former pilot noted that an engine issue, excessive speed loss, and loss of control can occur simultaneously, making recovery extremely difficult at low altitude.

Echoing this sentiment, pilots’ body All India Pilots’ Association urged restraint in public speculation. The association stated its firm belief that both pilots would have acted with the highest level of professionalism and did everything humanly possible to protect those on board.

Investigation Continues

The Learjet 45’s CVR and flight data recorder now in the custody of India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau are expected to provide critical insights into the aircraft’s airspeed, angle of attack, engine performance, and pilot inputs in the final seconds before impact. Only this data will allow investigators to move beyond preliminary theories to definitive conclusions.

The crash claimed five lives: Ajit Pawar, his personal security officer Vidhit Jadhav, pilot-in-command Sumit Kapur, first officer Shambhavi Pathak, and cabin crew member Pinky Mali. The aircraft was operating a Mumbai–Baramati flight for Delhi-based non-scheduled operator VSR Ventures. Aircraft manufacturer Bombardier has said it is supporting the investigation but will not comment on potential causes until the inquiry is complete.

As investigators decode the black box data, the aviation community and the public alike await answers reminded once again that while video evidence can suggest possibilities, only meticulous technical analysis can reveal the truth behind such tragedies.