Global container shipping volume to fall 1% in response to Trump trade policies – Drewry

By Admin

25 Apr, 2025

The global shipping industry is bracing for turbulence as new U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration begin to take effect. According to a recent forecast by maritime consultancy Drewry, global container port volume is projected to decline by 1% — marking only the third time such a drop has been recorded since 1979.

A Rare Downturn in Container Demand

The anticipated 1% fall in global container shipping demand is significant, especially in a sector that has seen consistent growth over decades. The last two contractions occurred during the global financial crisis in 2009, when volumes plummeted by 8.4%, and in 2020, when COVID-19 disrupted trade, leading to a 0.9% dip. The latest downturn, however, is not due to economic or health emergencies but the result of aggressive trade policies.

The Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade

The Trump administration's sweeping tariff measures include a 10% duty on imports from most countries and a staggering 145% on Chinese goods. These actions have sparked retaliatory tariffs from China and other affected nations, triggering fears of a prolonged trade war.

Drewry notes that, assuming two-thirds of the current tariffs remain, U.S. imports from China could decline by as much as 40%. This is especially significant given that China dominates U.S. imports in key categories such as consumer goods, industrial equipment, and furniture.

Trade Shifts and Production Relocation

While a steep drop in imports from China is expected, Drewry also predicts that some of the demand might shift to other countries with lower tariffs. This could result in a 15% increase in U.S. imports from alternative sources as companies move production to nations unaffected by the harsh duties. However, this shift may not be enough to fully counterbalance the overall decline in containerized trade.

Warning Signs from the Industry

The ripple effects are already being felt. German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd recently reported that customers have canceled 30% of their shipments to the U.S. from China. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation — representing major retailers like Walmart and Target — has projected a 20% year-over-year drop in U.S. containerized import volumes in the latter half of 2025.

Los Angeles, home to the busiest U.S. port for Chinese imports, is also sounding the alarm. The port's executive director has warned that import volumes may begin to decline as early as May.

A Global Economic Concern

Economists are increasingly concerned that these trade tensions could tip the U.S. economy into a recession — a development that could have global ramifications. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already issued a warning that worldwide economic output is likely to slow as U.S. tariffs on key trade partners begin to take effect.

In conclusion, while the long-term impact of these policies is yet to unfold, the near-term outlook for global shipping is clearly challenging. With a projected 1% decline in container port volumes and rising fears of economic slowdown, the international trade landscape is entering a period of uncertainty.