Ship Recycling to Double with 16,000 Vessels Expected to be Scrapped Over the Next Decade

By Admin

28 Jun, 2025

Ship recycling is entering a transformative era, with global estimates forecasting more than 16,000 ships, equivalent to 700 million deadweight tonnes (DWT), to be dismantled within the next ten years. This marks a monumental shift in maritime industry practices, more than doubling previous recycling activity, and comes on the heels of a long-anticipated international agreement the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, which officially came into force on June 26.

Why This Surge in Ship Recycling?

The catalyst behind this spike is the enforcement of the Hong Kong Convention, which sets mandatory global standards for ship recycling practices, aiming to protect both workers and the environment. The new forecast, released by BIMCO, one of the world’s leading shipping associations, revises the previous estimate of 15,000 ships and nearly triples the tonnage dismantled in the last decade.

According to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, this upward trend places urgent demand on recycling yards to scale up operations and comply with international environmental and safety standards.

Decoding the Numbers

The forecast is built on recycling trends observed between 2000 and 2019, applying age-based dismantling patterns by vessel type. For example, if 10% of 20-year-old capesize bulk carriers were scrapped historically, the same rate is assumed for the next decade.

Ships built during the 2000s are expected to dominate this upcoming scrapping wave. During 2015–2024, ships from the 1990s era made up 35% of scrapped ships and 62% of recycled DWT. Yet shipbuilding surged in the 2000s producing 31% more ships and 115% more tonnage. Despite that, only 3% of those ships and 5% of their DWT have been scrapped so far, leaving a large pool of aging vessels now due for dismantling.

Who Will Lead the Scrapping?

Bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships will comprise about 91% of the scrapped tonnage, even though they represent just over half the vessels. The remainder will include general cargo vessels and fishing boats, projected to contribute significantly in numbers.

South Asia Remains the Epicenter

From 2015 to 2024, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan accounted for a staggering 86% of global recycled DWT and 58% of dismantled vessels. Following China’s exit from international ship recycling in 2017, these nations solidified their dominance. Today, China contributes less than 2% of global ship recycling, while Turkey remains an active hub, particularly for offshore vessels.

Despite regional efforts elsewhere to increase shipbreaking capacity, BIMCO expects South Asia to remain the global center of ship recycling for the foreseeable future.

Breaking the Recycling Record

The previous peak in global ship recycling occurred in 2012, when around 1,800 ships totaling 60 million DWT were dismantled. Starting 2027, projections suggest this figure could be exceeded annually, driven by aging fleets and tighter environmental regulations.

However, market conditions will influence actual recycling volumes. A strong shipping market could reduce scrapping, while emission pressures and weaker freight markets might accelerate it.

A New Chapter Under the Hong Kong Convention

The Hong Kong Convention is the cornerstone of this paradigm shift. Ratified by 24 countries, including major ship recyclers like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Türkiye, and registries such as Japan, Liberia, Panama, and the Marshall Islands, the treaty now governs over 57% of the world’s shipping tonnage.

In Pakistan, this prompted a major initiative led by Federal Maritime Minister Junaid Anwar Chaudhry to modernize the Gadani Ship Breaking Yard with a 12-billion rupee transformation into a Model Green Yard. This includes infrastructure upgrades such as a hospital, school, park, clean drinking water, and housing for workers and medical staff. The initiative was officially launched in September 2024 by IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, calling the Convention's enforcement a "historic moment."

Concerns Still Remain

Despite progress, criticism from NGOs highlights the remaining gaps. The NGO Shipbreaking Platform reported that between 2009 and today, 8,221 ships were dismantled in South Asia, resulting in at least 473 deaths and 517 injuries numbers they believe are underreported due to lack of data on occupational illnesses and limited oversight.

Ingvild Jenssen, the NGO's Executive Director, argues the Convention favors shipping companies by allowing them to sidestep the full costs of safe and sustainable practices, potentially putting ethical recyclers at a competitive disadvantage. The group warns that human rights and environmental justice are not adequately addressed by the current framework.

The Road Ahead

While the Hong Kong Convention is not without flaws, many in the industry believe it is a critical first step toward standardizing a fragmented sector. The next ten years will be decisive in determining whether ship recycling evolves into a truly sustainable and responsible industry or continues to operate under the shadow of its past.