Oil Rises 3% After U.S. Bombs Iranian Nuclear Sites

By Admin

23 Jun, 2025

Muted Market Response Despite Major Geopolitical Escalation

Oil prices rose modestly on Sunday evening following overnight U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a geopolitical development that, under normal circumstances, might have sent energy markets into a frenzy. While many anticipated a dramatic opening when electronic trading began at 6 p.m. ET, the reality was far more restrained.

Just 30 minutes into trading, oil was up by only around 3%. As of 6:27 p.m. ET, Brent crude traded at $79.45 per barrel, up 3.17%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $76.19 per barrel, a gain of $3.18.

Why the Tepid Reaction?

The relatively calm response has left many market watchers puzzled. Analysts point to robust global inventories, OPEC+ spare capacity, and generally bearish macroeconomic flows as the primary buffers dampening the oil market’s usual sensitivity to geopolitical risks.

In contrast, past events have shown a much more dramatic impact. In September 2019, Brent crude spiked nearly 20% in a single day after Iran-linked militants attacked Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility, knocking out 5% of global supply. Even the 2020 U.S. drone strike on Iranian General Qassem Soleimani caused oil prices to climb ~4% amid fears of retaliation. This time, however, markets appear more insulated.

Details of the Airstrikes and Market Outlook

The U.S. military conducted coordinated airstrikes on three major nuclear sites in Iran Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan causing visible damage to uranium enrichment and research infrastructure. While Tehran has vowed retaliation, the market is, for now, betting that any escalation will remain controlled.

Analyst Tom Kloza noted on X (formerly Twitter) that traders seem to be "waiting to see if Iran disrupts Hormuz before lifting the gas price alarm.” Strategist Velina Tchakarova added that despite the serious backdrop, the “signal remains weak” due to high inventory levels.

Hormuz: The Real Wildcard

The real test for markets may come if Iran moves to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flows. Such a move could cause a dramatic price surge, potentially pushing crude back toward the $100 per barrel mark. Until then, the energy sector appears to be in a holding pattern alert, but not alarmed.

Conclusion: Watching, Not Panicking

While the headlines scream escalation, the markets are signaling caution, not chaos. For now, traders are carefully watching for Iran’s next move, ready to adjust their positions if the geopolitical tremors grow into a supply shock. But unless that shock comes, oil markets may continue to treat even high-stakes military strikes as background noise.