DP World survey: Trade leaders upbeat on 2026 despite rising barriers

By Admin

22 Jan, 2026

Global trade confidence holds steady

The global trade environment is entering 2026 under visible pressure from policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and rising trade barriers. Yet, confidence among business leaders remains unexpectedly strong. This is the central insight from the latest Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report 2026 released by DP World.

According to the report, 94% of surveyed trade leaders believe that global trade growth in 2026 will either match or exceed the pace of 2025. This optimism stands in contrast to the increasingly fragile global outlook and highlights a growing gap between frontline business sentiment and macroeconomic projections.

Survey scope and leadership insight

The findings are based on a comprehensive survey of 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries. The research was conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, providing timely insight into how global trade leaders are planning for the year ahead.

Of the respondents, 54% expect trade growth to be faster in 2026 than in 2025, while 40% anticipate similar growth levels. This confidence persists even as 53% of executives expect high or very high policy uncertainty, and 90% believe trade barriers will rise or at least remain unchanged.

Business impact versus macro forecasts

Despite rising frictions, only 25% of respondents expect a negative impact on their business. Nearly half, 49%, foresee no impact at all, and 26% even expect positive effects. This resilience-driven outlook differs sharply from broader economic forecasts.

The International Monetary Fund projects that global trade growth by volume could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025. The contrast suggests that companies are adapting faster on the ground than macro indicators may reflect.

Where trade growth is expected

When asked about regions with the greatest trade growth potential in 2026, executives identified Europe as the top opportunity at 22%, followed by China at 17%. Asia Pacific ranked next at 14%, with North America close behind at 13%. These responses indicate that mature and emerging markets alike remain central to global trade strategies, even amid ongoing disruption.

Leadership perspective from DP World

Commenting on the findings, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, emphasized that complexity is now a permanent feature of global trade. He noted that the company’s role is to keep trade moving by identifying friction points early and investing in infrastructure, capabilities, and partnerships that enable customers to operate efficiently and reliably in uncertain conditions.

Resilience becomes core strategy

One of the most important themes emerging from the survey is how companies are reshaping their strategies for 2026. Resilience is no longer a defensive measure but a core business strategy.

More than half of respondents, 51%, plan to diversify suppliers, while 44% are increasing inventory buffers. Friend-shoring strategies are also gaining traction, with 36% of executives planning to shift sourcing toward politically aligned or stable regions.

Trade routes and infrastructure priorities

Companies are also rethinking how goods move across borders. Around 26% plan to adopt new trade routes in 2026, while another 23% are actively evaluating alternatives. The main drivers behind these decisions include cost savings, improved inland connectivity, and faster customs clearance processes.

However, border friction remains a major bottleneck. About 60% of executives identify customs clearance as a leading cause of delays and disruption. As a result, investment priorities are shifting toward warehousing and logistics hubs, road networks, and border and customs processing infrastructure.

Confidence with contingency plans

The Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook was developed in collaboration with the Geneva-based insights agency Horizon Group. According to its Managing Partner, Margareta Drzeniek, today’s optimism is grounded in preparation rather than complacency. Companies are embedding contingency planning into their strategies by reassessing routes, diversifying supply bases, and building optionality into operations. In an environment where volatility is the norm, those who convert resilience planning into measurable performance will be best positioned for success.

Outlook for 2026

The DP World survey reveals a clear message for 2026. While global trade faces structural challenges and rising barriers, businesses are not standing still. Instead, they are adapting with greater agility, investing in resilience, and identifying opportunities within complexity. The result is a cautiously optimistic outlook where confidence is supported by strategy, not assumption.