Bihar assembly polls may see the beginning of post-Mandal politics

By Admin

07 Oct, 2025

Elections in Bihar, India’s third most populous state and a crucible of Mandal politics, have always been intensely competitive   shaping political narratives that extend far beyond the state’s borders. The upcoming assembly polls promise to be no different. As Bihar enters a new phase of political transition, the results will not only redefine power equations in Patna and Delhi but also influence political strategies in other states heading for elections next year.

The Legacy of Mandal Politics
Since the 1990s, Bihar’s political landscape has revolved around two towering figures   Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both emerged from the anti-Emergency JP Movement and carried forward the social justice agenda that gained momentum after the VP Singh government implemented the Mandal Commission report. Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) dominated the chaotic 1990s with a focus on empowering backward classes, while Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] reshaped governance from 2005 onward with his “Mandal plus sushasan” (good governance) model.

However, Bihar’s politics now stands at a crossroads. With an ailing Lalu Prasad handing over RJD leadership to his son, Tejashwi Yadav, and Nitish Kumar nearing the twilight of his career, this election could mark the end of an era   and the dawn of a post-Mandal political phase.

High Stakes for Both Alliances
The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enters the polls on the back of a strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it won 30 of Bihar’s 40 seats. The JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (RV), and Hindustani Awam Morcha contributed 18 of these seats. In the 2020 assembly polls, the NDA had narrowly edged past the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan by just 15 seats, despite a minuscule 0.03% vote share difference.

A victory for the NDA will further cement its position at the Centre and strengthen its narrative of governance and stability. Conversely, a setback could pose serious challenges for coalition management in Delhi. For the Opposition’s INDIA bloc, a strong performance would inject fresh momentum into its national campaign and consolidate its position across Hindi heartland states.

The Shift Toward Post-Mandal Politics
The gradual retreat of both Lalu and Nitish is set to open up Bihar’s political arena for a new generation of leaders and ideologies. Unlike Uttar Pradesh, where politics has increasingly pivoted toward religious identity, Bihar has remained rooted in caste dynamics   a balance both leaders consciously maintained. Nitish Kumar expanded this framework by integrating gender into the discourse, promoting women’s participation and empowerment through affirmative policies.

Yet, new actors like Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party are attempting to move beyond identity politics altogether. Kishor’s campaign emphasizes development, governance, and public participation   what he calls a “politics of hope.” Whether such an agenda can capture the imagination of Bihar’s electorate, long accustomed to caste-based mobilization, remains to be seen.

The Role of National Parties
In this evolving landscape, both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress appear to be playing secondary roles. Despite the BJP’s strong cadre base and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, the party’s ability to set a distinct regional narrative remains limited. The Congress, too, struggles to find relevance amid the dominance of local parties that understand Bihar’s intricate social and political fabric far better.

What Lies Ahead for Bihar?
The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections may well serve as a referendum on three decades of Mandal-era politics. Will voters choose continuity through established caste-driven equations, or will they pivot toward a new developmental paradigm that transcends identity lines?

As the state prepares for polls this November, one thing is clear  Bihar’s political future is poised for transformation. The outcome could signal not just the end of an era dominated by Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar but also the beginning of a new chapter in India’s democratic evolution   one where the politics of aspiration may finally replace the politics of identity.