Air cargo watches and waits as trade chaos create ‘slowbalisation’

By Admin

16 Apr, 2025

Introduction: The Calm Before the Shift

Air cargo is currently navigating a complex and uncertain landscape, standing at a critical crossroad as sweeping tariff changes and rising geopolitical tensions reshape global trade dynamics. At the heart of this uncertainty is what many at the IATA World Cargo Symposium in Dubai are calling a “wait-and-see moment” — a cautious pause in the industry as it anticipates the outcomes of recent global trade disruptions, most notably triggered by the United States’ aggressive tariff regime.

A Slower Growth Trajectory

According to Alina Fetisova, Trade Facilitation Programme Officer at the International Trade Centre, air cargo growth has slowed considerably. “We are witnessing a slower pace of growth, with the tariffs having put the industry in a wait-and-see moment,” she remarked. While last year’s demand growth reached a robust 11.3%, projections for 2025 have significantly dipped to a more modest 4-6%.

This dip is not only a result of the U.S. trade policies but is compounded by Europe’s move to amend its rules on the de minimis exemption. These changes have collectively contributed to an atmosphere of instability, making it challenging for stakeholders to make confident logistical and financial decisions.

Slowbalisation – Not the End, But a Transformation

Despite the chaos, the global trade community is far from calling this the end of globalisation. A nuanced view was offered by Aevean MD Marco Bloemen, who coined the term ‘slowbalisation’ to describe the current climate. “Trade is growing slower than GDP – and, yes, in some places we are seeing de-globalisation,” he explained. However, he emphasized that this is more a deceleration than a dismantling of global trade networks.

Supporting this, Air Canada Cargo’s MD Commercial, Matthieu Casey, urged against alarmist interpretations of the current trends. “While there are tectonic shifts taking place, they are moving perhaps far slower than the headlines make it feel,” Casey noted.

Opportunities Amidst the Disruption

Interestingly, the current disruption may also pave the way for innovation and market diversification. Kale Logistics Solutions CEO Amar More highlighted how increased regulation might foster opportunities for automation and digital transformation. “Even if there is a slowdown, international trade is like water — it will find its way,” said More. He also predicted that trade flows might reroute, particularly towards Europe and the Middle East, as China seeks alternatives to the U.S. market.

Emerging Markets and Strategic Shifts

Industry consensus appears to lean towards a strategic redirection of trade routes. Both Bloemen and Casey acknowledged the potential for emergent markets to fill gaps left by the U.S., although Bloemen cautioned that these markets may not fully compensate for the loss of business with America.

There was also a general skepticism at the symposium regarding the narrative of U.S. deglobalisation. One industry executive argued that the U.S. stance was likely a tactical move in negotiations. “Once President Trump gets what he wants, he’ll cut the tariff crap,” the executive said, reflecting a belief that the current posture might be more temporary than structural.

Conclusion: Resilient, but Evolving

The air cargo sector stands at the intersection of unpredictability and resilience. While current conditions have indeed introduced a cautious slowdown, the industry remains adaptive. The concept of slowbalisation reminds us that while global trade may change its rhythm, its course is far from over. Stakeholders are watching, waiting — and preparing — for a future that may look different, but remains deeply interconnected.