Air cargo rates drop following peak demand

By Admin

01 Jan, 2026

Introduction
Global air cargo markets are witnessing a notable softening in freight rates as peak-season demand fades. According to the latest Freightos Air Index, prices across major trade lanes have declined sharply, reflecting a typical post-yearend correction after the traditional rush driven by e-commerce and holiday shipments.

Sharp Decline Across Major Trade Lanes
Air freight rates from China to North America recorded a significant week-on-week drop of 16%, falling to around $6.26 per kg. This marks the lowest level seen since early November, indicating easing pressure on capacity as demand normalizes.
Similarly, China–North Europe air cargo prices declined by 5% to $3.52 per kg, while transatlantic routes also experienced a downturn, with North Europe–North America rates decreasing 14% to $2.16 per kg.

South East Asia Routes See Steeper Corrections
The post-peak adjustment has been even more pronounced on South East Asia routes. Freightos data shows that South East Asia–US air freight rates fell by 19% to $4.60 per kg. Meanwhile, South East Asia–Europe prices dropped by more than 20% to $3.12 per kg. These sharp declines highlight the rapid cooling of demand following the yearend shipping surge.

Post-Peak Season Market Correction
Overall, the data points to a broader post-peak correction in global air cargo markets. As seasonal demand eases, carriers and shippers are adjusting to a more balanced supply-demand environment, resulting in softer pricing across regions.

Long-Term Outlook Remains Resilient
Despite the current decline in rates, the long-term outlook for air cargo remains positive. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that global air cargo volumes grew by 11% in 2024, largely driven by sustained growth in e-commerce.
For 2025, IATA forecasts air cargo volume growth of 3.1% compared with the previous year, followed by an estimated annual growth rate of 2.6% in 2026. This indicates continued resilience in underlying demand, even as short-term market conditions fluctuate.

Uncertainty Around 2026 Rate Trends
While demand growth projections are steady, uncertainty remains around future air freight rates. Industry experts hold differing views on whether cargo capacity growth will outpace volume growth in 2026. This imbalance could influence pricing trends, making rate forecasts for the coming years less predictable.

Conclusion
The recent drop in air cargo rates underscores a natural post-peak adjustment rather than a structural slowdown. With strong fundamentals supported by e-commerce and global trade, air cargo demand is expected to stay resilient, even as the market navigates short-term volatility and capacity-related uncertainties.